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This essay addresses the transcendental energy reform in Mexico from a socio-legal perspective that analyzes the possible scenarios of socio-environmental conflict that may arise during the implementation process, which is currently underway, as well as the probable institutional responses. For such purpose, these reflections will focus on the hydrocarbons industry, the area which I believe will experience the greatest variation and concentration of social-environmental conflict over the short and medium term.
The change of the regulatory paradigm for hydrocarbons is accompanied by significant transformations in the structure of the political and social environment in which the industry will operate. Previously, the state monopoly represented by the Mexican company Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) operated in an environment that was mainly characterized by: a) a public discourse that promoted a development model based on oil dependency; b) public acceptance of the social and environmental impact resulting from the work of PEMEX; and c) PEMEX’s opacity with respect to its operations.
Despite the fact that the socio-environmental conflicts related to energy matters in other Latin American countries have multiplied since the 1990s and continue until the present, the three characteristics listed above allowed PEMEX’s activities to have a low incidence and perception of scarce conflict. Within the context of a liberalized energy sector, it is noted that such characteristics will hardly be maintained; therefore, there is a higher risk of the emergence and visibility of socio-environmental conflicts. The distance that the State will maintain with respect to the new economic players, a public opinion that is more critical of the socio-environmental impact of energy and extraction activities, and greater transparency in the sector make it possible to foresee the emergence of a social context with greater conflict, which will bring Mexico closer to a scenario similar to cases in other parts of Latin America.
The new legislation establishes some conditions to decrease risks, such as the inclusion of residents’ right to be consulted and compensated for the use of community land for extractive activities. Even in this manner, it is foreseen that Mexico will have to accept a future with greater socio-environmental conflict. It is predicted that, in addition to the traditional extra-institutional arrangements to resolve such conflicts and the expertise of the new players who will participate in the sector, an avenue for resolving conflicts through the judicial system will be created. Greater institutional autonomy with respect to the executive branch, a new constitutional paradigm guided by international human rights laws, the introduction of collective or class action proceedings, and the reform of amparo proceedings would make Mexican judges arbitrators of the predicted new socio- environmental conflicts regarding energy issues.
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