The Geopolitics of Natural Gas

One of the most dramatic energy market developments in recent years is tied directly to unconventional natural gas. Indeed, rapid growth in the production of natural gas from shale propelled the emergence of the United States and Canada as potential suppliers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Asian and European consumers. The upstream success in North America also catalyzed countries in Asia and Europe to explore their own indigenous shale gas potential. Certainly, the commercial viability of identified shale gas resources in regions outside the U.S. and Canada faces its own set of challenges. Nevertheless, increased production of unconventional natural gas has altered the commercial reality for energy markets globally, and has broad geopolitical implications insomuch as trade relationships are affected. Moreover, increasing opportunities for trade, particularly via LNG, will challenge the previously segregated nature of North American, European and Asian natural gas markets, and will have key strategic implications, such as the role of Russian natural gas in the European market. Greater fungibility in global gas markets will also put mounting pressure on the long-standing, oil-linked gas pricing paradigm.

This conference, sponsored by ConocoPhillips, is the capstone for “The Geopolitics of Natural Gas,” a multi-year study directed by Kenneth Medlock, senior director of the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University's Baker Institute; Meghan O'Sullivan, director of the Geopolitics of Energy Project at Harvard University's Kennedy School; and Amy Myers Jaffe, executive director of energy and sustainability at the University of California, Davis.

To view the full program for the conference, click here.

Agenda

9:00 am			Welcoming Remarks The Honorable Edward P. Djerejian Founding Director, Baker Institute Morning Keynote Ryan Lance Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, ConocoPhillips
9:45 am			Morning Panel — Study Design and Initial Scenario Results Kenneth B. Medlock III, Ph.D. (slides) James A. Baker, III, and Susan G. Baker Fellow in Energy and Resource Economics, and Senior Director, Center for Energy Studies, Rice University’s Baker Institute Meghan O’Sullivan, Ph.D. Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs, and Director, Geopolitics of Energy Project, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University Amy Myers Jaffe Executive Director of Energy and Sustainability, University of California, Davis
11:30 am			Presentation — BP Global Energy Outlook 2035 Mark Finley (slides) General Manager, Global Energy Markets and U.S. Economics, BP
1:30 pm			Afternoon Keynote — Geopolitical Developments in the Middle East The Honorable Edward P. Djerejian Founding Director, Baker Institute; and Independent Chairman of the Board, Occidental Petroleum Corporation
2:00 pm			Afternoon Panel I — The Role of Russia in the “Golden Age of Gas” Moderator: Meghan O’Sullivan, Ph.D., Harvard University Tatiana Mitrova, Ph.D. (slides) Head of Oil and Gas Department, Energy Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences Robert Johnston, Ph.D. (slides) Director, Global Energy and Natural Resources, Eurasia Group Andreas Goldthau, Ph.D. (slides) Marie Curie Senior Fellow and Visiting Scholar, Geopolitics of Energy Project, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
3:45 pm			Afternoon Panel II — Regions Driving Transition in the Future Global Gas Market Moderator: Amy Myers Jaffe, University of California, Davis Kenneth B. Medlock III, Ph.D. James A. Baker, III, and Susan G. Baker Fellow in Energy and Resource Economics, and Senior Director, Center for Energy Studies, Rice University’s Baker Institute Isidro Morales, Ph.D. (slides) Professor, Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education Luay Al-Khatteeb, Ph.D. (slides) Executive Director and Founder, Iraq Energy Institute; and Visiting Fellow, The Brookings Institution Steven Lewis, Ph.D. C.V. Starr Transnational China Fellow, Rice University’s Baker Institute
5:00 pm			Closing Remarks