Research Library

After seven years of steady decline and an accumulated drop of 25%, Latin America’s crude oil production has recovered by more than 9% over the past two years, thanks to significant growth in Guyana and Brazil and smaller increases in Argentina and Venezuela. Francisco J. Monaldi walks us through these developments and what could be ahead for the region.

Energy transitions also connect to developments in natural gas and oil markets, both of which still receive significant attention from policymakers. Steven R. Miles explains that despite numerous challenges, global reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) has continued to expand. Thus, future trends will be shaped by trade dynamics, geopolitical factors, regulations, and U.S. policies. LNG is important for the global energy balance, and increasing demand for natural gas means the long-term outlook for U.S. LNG exports remains bright, despite the recent LNG permitting pause by the U.S. Department of Energy.

Despite its uncertain future in the context of energy transitions, oil remains the largest global energy source, and oil markets will continue to demand attention in the near term given their economic and geopolitical impacts. Mark Finley discusses global oil production, demand, and implications.

Ken Medlock highlights the importance of supply chains and legacy infrastructures for the success of new technologies and stresses the role of coordination along supply chains to drive value. A holistic awareness of economics, politics, regulation, and resource scarcity is critical for developing market structures that support investment for effective decarbonization.

Emerging artificial intelligence (AI) tools could prove an important contributor to successfully decarbonizing energy. Christopher Bronk discusses how they can enhance our ability to process and understand extensive data streams in energy, policy, technology, and geopolitics, which could transform the way we process information and assess regional and global situations in real time.

The EU’s withdrawal from the Energy Charter Treaty may foreshadow an eventual end to investor-state dispute settlement (ISDI) — a legal mechanism that permits foreign investors to sue a country over actions that harm their investments. A report by fellow David A. Gantz outlines the history of ISDI provisions in global trade agreements and examines what ISDI’s end might mean for the future of investment and trade in the U.S., EU, and other nations.

Ukraine's power grid is under severe strain, with Russian attacks reducing electricity generation capacity to just one-third of prewar levels. In a new working paper, Gabriel Collins and Kenneth B. Medlock, III suggest prioritizing decentralized, mobile power solutions to help Ukraine survive the winter and prevent a humanitarian disaster. They emphasize the critical need for international support to help Ukraine rebuild a more resilient energy system.

Nearshoring offers Mexico a major economic opportunity; however, current policy hindering power expansion, energy transition, and private investment forestalls this prospect. A report by the Center for the U.S. and Mexico on their collaborative workshop series with Tecnológico de Monterrey dissects the power sector’s critical role in nearshoring efforts and offers policy recommendations for a way forward.

Fellow in Energy and Global Oil, Mark Finley, comments on the 2024 edition of the Energy Institute’s “Statistical Review of World Energy” and points out some new wrinkles, a lot of continuity, and the mixed message left by the world of energy in 2023.