Research Library

Nonresident scholar Richard Kilroy explores how Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s decision to move the Guardia Nacional — an institution created to protect public safety — under the control of Mexico’s military could have dire consequences for civil-military relations and U.S.-Mexico security relations.

The pandemic spurred a rollercoaster of quick, subsequent economic events in three years that might normally occur across three decades: record unemployment, a brief recession, federal assistance, highest inflation since the 1980s, interest rate increases, and in 2023, concerns regarding a looming recession. Some U.S. consumers have dealt with the aftermath of this whiplash by shifting their spending and saving behaviors. Our experts discuss U.S. consumer trends since the pandemic — what’s stayed the same, new phenomena, and notable policy developments. 

With the 2023 debt-ceiling negotiations under way, a new issue brief from John Diamond, director of the Center for Public Finance, and Autumn Engebretson looks at the effectiveness of the Budget Control Act 2011, enacted in response to the 2011 debt-ceiling crisis. Did it in fact control the budget? And could similar legislation work now?

Over the last three years, the U.S. has experienced several significant pandemic-driven economic rollercoasters. In response, consumer behaviors have certainly shifted, writes public finance fellow Joyce Beebe. She explores the latest consumer trends in this issue brief.

Is the U.S. headed for a recession? History tells us a near-term recession is unlikely — but emergent threats like unregulated crypto exchanges and U.S. debt servicing necessitate further measures to mitigate economic risk, writes public finance fellow Jorge Barro.

This paper models the oil strategy of Gulf Arab states under three future energy transition scenarios. Under the most ambitious scenario, the region would have to decouple its oil revenues from its economic growth and could face significant economic and political consequences.

In American Coal Magazine, fellow Michelle Michot Foss examines the world’s continued dependence on fossil fuels as it pursues the energy transition.

This brief reviews the factors that distinguish a “hobby” from a “business” in the eyes of the IRS as well as associated requirements, common misapplications of regulations and the factors that go into a determination between the two.

In a workshop hosted by the Center for Energy Studies and the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center earlier this year, experts considered the future of US shale oil and gas production. Given the need for oil supplies in the near term, is a new shale renaissance on the horizon?