Research Library

The ties binding the Arab Gulf states into the global economy are both deep-rooted and long predate the discovery and extraction of oil in the 20th century. In this research paper, Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, fellow for the Middle East, assesses the multifaceted reasons behind the Gulf states’ uneven record of integration into the world economy.

Whether out of strategic calculations or due to attitude towards women, the outcome is the same: female candidates often do not follow the party route to political office in Bahrain.

Rising populations and growing wealth have coupled with low domestic prices to propel huge increases in energy consumption within the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain. The trend of large and continuing increases in demand threatens assumptions about the sustainability of the region’s oil exports Politically difficult reforms that moderate consumption can extend the longevity of exports, and perhaps, the regimes themselves.

As the United States once again ramps up involvement in Iraq, it makes sense to examine U.S. interests and strategy while considering what might constitute realistic parameters for participation and outcome. In this issue brief, energy fellow Jim Krane explores answers to the question "What are U.S. interests in Iraq and how are they best pursued?"

The changing regional geopolitics of the Middle East have created new opportunities for the Gulf states to engage in Arab-Israeli conflict resolution after the Arab Spring. This policy report examines the potential role that the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) — might play in Israeli-Palestinian conflict resolution. It presents policy recommendations on how the Gulf states can engage with regional and international partners and build upon the greater space for action as the shifting parameters of Middle East politics create new regional pathways for action and cooperation.

Talk of a “pivot to Asia” that supposedly would mark President Obama’s second term is “misplaced and even simplistic,” writes fellow Kristian Coates Ulrichsen. In a globalized world, “key U.S. relationships with strategic and commercial partners … cannot be addressed in isolation from one another. The convergence of U.S. ties and Asian ties with the Middle East is a case in point highlights how regions and issues are interconnected as never before.”

Fossil fuel subsidies have allowed energy exporting countries to distribute resource revenue, bolstering legitimacy for governments, many of which are not democratically elected. But subsidy benefits are dwarfed by the harmful consequences of encouraging uneconomic use of energy. Now, with consumption posing a threat to long-term exports, governments face a heightened need to raise prices that have come to be viewed as entitlements. While reforms of state benefits are notoriously politically dangerous, previous experience shows that subsidies can be rolled back without undermining government legitimacy — even in autocratic settings — given proper preparation.

There is a curious imbalance in energy markets in the Persian Gulf region: Five of the six Gulf monarchies exhibit shortages in domestic supply of natural gas. Meanwhile, Qatar holds the world's third-largest conventional reserves and is the world's No. 2 gas exporter. Why is Qatar, given its enormous resources and relatively small domestic needs, unwilling to supply gas sufficient to meet its neighbors' demand?

While much media attention recently has focused on the geopolitical fault lines that connect Syria’s violence to wider region-wide trends, the plight of individual women, men, and children displaced within Syria or living in camps beyond its borders shows no sign of ending. As Secretary of State John Kerry has stated, the humanitarian situation in Syria is "an outrage" but the violence only looks set to worsen as opposition groups turn on each other and radical trans-national elements feed off the resulting vacuum of authority and control. This is the task as the international community prepares to reconvene in Switzerland on January 22, writes Baker Institute fellow Kristian Coates Ulrichsen in the Baker Institute Blog.

Countries around the Persian Gulf are falling behind with regard to renewables, both for technical and for political reasons. And they need to diversify — just like the rest of us — if they are going to keep local consumption from using up too much of the oil they would rather sell.