Kevin Shih, “30 Years of the TN Visa: New Data and Trends on TN Professionals in the US Labor Market” (Houston: Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, September 17, 2024), https://doi.org/10.25613/DHSJ-NC35.
This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Trade NAFTA (TN) classification program, which was established in 1994 under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The TN program offers a streamlined pathway for skilled professionals from Canada and Mexico to seek employment in the United States across a spectrum of qualifying occupations. Despite its three decades of existence, there is limited information available about the number and composition of TN professionals in the United States and their impact on the U.S. labor market.
The mobility of talented professionals across borders is often lauded as a key driver of global economic vitality. Indeed, supporters of the TN program emphasize its potential to facilitate cross-border partnerships, foster knowledge exchange, and boost innovation and economic growth within North America. However, like many immigration policies, the TN program faces several challenges and critiques, including concerns over wage suppression, displacement of native-born workers, and regulatory complexities. These issues underscore the need for a nuanced and data-driven assessment of the impacts of the TN program.
In comparison to alternative immigration pathways for skilled workers to enter the United States, the TN visa stands out in at least four regards: 1) there is no numerical limit on the number of TN workers; 2) there is no limit on the duration of work, as TN visas are issued in three-year increments and can be renewed indefinitely; 3) eligibility is restricted to individuals who meet specific education requirements, typically a bachelor’s degree or higher, and who work in one of approximately 60 approved occupations; and 4) employers face lower application costs as they only need to provide letters confirming employment.
Against this backdrop, this paper aims to provide new data and insights on TN professionals over the past three decades. By combining traditional measures from available government statistics with new measurements based on microdata, this paper seeks to answer three key questions:
In answering these critical questions, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of TN workers in the U.S. labor market over the past 30 years.
To access the full paper, download the PDF.
This research is generously supported by a grant from the Charles Koch Foundation. This publication was produced in collaboration with the Baker Institute Center for the U.S. and Mexico. Wherever feasible, this research was reviewed by outside experts before it was released. Any errors are the author’s alone.
This material may be quoted or reproduced without prior permission, provided appropriate credit is given to the author and Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. The views expressed herein are those of the individual author(s), and do not necessarily represent the views of Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.
