Climate-Induced Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa

Introduction

Climate change and environmental disasters are increasingly prominent drivers of migration and displacement. They often amplify other factors that cause individuals to flee their homes, including war, violence, food insecurity, and lack of opportunity. Although some individuals displaced by climate-related causes cross international borders, the great majority of individuals find refuge within their own country. Under the worst projections, by 2050, up to 216 million people around the world, including 19 million people in North Africa, could be forced to move internally within their countries due to slow-onset climate change impacts, such as water scarcity, reduced crop productivity, and rising sea levels.[1] This estimate paints a startling picture for displacement over the next several decades, should government inaction on the intersection of climate, development, human rights, gender, and migration policy continue.

As one of the most arid and water-scarce regions in the world, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is particularly vulnerable to the changing climate.[2] It is heating twice as quickly as the rest of the world, with certain countries' temperatures, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, projected to rise by 9 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.[3] Furthermore, there are huge variations in the region’s ability to mitigate the impacts of climate change. For example, wealthy oil-rich countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) may have the capacity to provide safe and healthy conditions for inhabitants — even if they lack the political will to do so — while resource-scarce countries may struggle to meet the needs of their populations.[4]

As such, projections of future forced displacement due to climate change may be daunting for a region already facing intermittent conflict, economic crises, and, in some countries, poor governance. And yet because of the scale of the issue, the nuances of the relationship between climate change and displacement are sometimes poorly understood. To better comprehend the current and future impacts of climate-induced displacement within the MENA region, this series of policy briefs draws on the research of scholars from across the region. Together, the briefs examine various avenues of protection for individuals displaced by climate change and delve into the question of whether responses to climate-induced displacement should be addressed at the country, regional, or global levels. They also explore how internally displaced persons (IDPs) who relocate due to climate-related factors can be supported, and apply a gendered lens to the issue of climate displacement.

As a whole, the series calls for greater action on the issue of climate change and migration with regard to mitigation, prevention, and protection — as well as preparedness and human rights-focused responses for those forced to flee.

To begin, two authors ask whether the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees — the hallmark of our global system of protection — can be expanded to include individuals fleeing the impacts of climate change. Chiara Scissa suggests that a traditional interpretation of the Refugee Convention, which typically excludes disaster-induced displacement from refugee status, overlooks the deliberate weaponization of disasters and natural resources in conflicts. She highlights the cases of Syria and Yemen, where certain minority groups face discrimination and intentional harm due to state and nonstate actors’ systematic attacks on food and water supplies. Ultimately, Scissa argues, the convention should be applied more broadly and consider the compounding effects of disasters and vulnerabilities induced by conflict.

Next, Rasha Akel explores the relevance of the Refugee Convention for environmentally displaced populations. She recommends applying a “social paradigm” to the question of the convention’s relevance, rather than the dominant “hazard paradigm.” While a hazard paradigm looks at disasters removed from their social context, a social paradigm views them as social phenomena, rooted in historical and structural discrimination. To illustrate this, Akel examines the 1991 and 2011 Somali droughts and ensuing famines as political events, asserting that through this lens, those displaced could meet the convention’s definition of “refugee.” Akel ultimately argues that “the root socio-structural causes that generate vulnerabilities” within the context of a disaster must be considered for environmental refugees to be afforded adequate legal protection within the existing international framework.

Anna Bailey-Morley also considers how those driven to migrate due to climate change can do so within existing legal pathways. She proposes that skills mobility partnerships (SMPs) form a key part of the response to climate change-related migration, allowing for an alternative to refugee status. She argues that by leveraging SMPs, such as the 2009 agreement signed between Egypt and Italy, countries can expand labor migration pathways in an equitable manner, providing opportunities for those affected by climate change to leave their countries safely and regularly while also addressing labor shortages in destination countries. Bailey-Morley acknowledges that despite their promising nature, SMPs are still in the nascent stages of implementation and that scaling them up may prove challenging. As such, SMPs should be seen as a complementary policy strategy alongside other avenues for regular and safe migration.

Given that climate change will primarily lead to internal, rather than cross-border, displacement, several authors focus on the challenges faced by IDPs. Ilef Kassab considers the status and protection of IDPs who were refugees before having to move again in their host country. She argues that two regional conventions that protect refugees in Africa and also apply to IDPs — the Organization of African Unity Convention Governing the Specific Aspects of Refugee Problems in Africa (OAU Refugee Convention) and the African Union Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons in Africa (Kampala Convention) — can be used to jointly strengthen the legal and policy framework for refugees who become internally displaced as a result of climate change impacts within their host country. Kassab situates her argument within North Africa, which is home to approximately 1.4 million refugees and asylum seekers who face the possibility of further displacement due to climate-related factors. Kassab argues that for the two conventions to work in concert, more countries in the region must adopt the Kampala Convention.

Next, Mhd Ekbal Anak further explores whether existing protection mechanisms can adequately address internal displacement within the context of climate change. He highlights existing — though insufficient — international, regional, and national protection frameworks and emphasizes the disproportionate impact of climate-induced displacement on vulnerable populations, including children, women, older people, and people with disabilities, underlining the need for a rights-based and gender-responsive approach. Ultimately, Anak argues, new comprehensive policies and strategic action plans are needed to bridge the policy gap for the protection of IDPs in the context of climate change.

Intissar Hafsi and Adel Azouni also consider gender in the context of climate-induced displacement. They examine the impacts of climate change on the livelihoods and migration decisions of residents of Kerkennah, a Tunisian archipelago in the Mediterranean Sea. Through interviews and a gendered and intersectional approach, Hafsi and Azouni analyze the complex interplay of factors that families consider when deciding whether to remain on ancestral lands or relocate to safer, less impacted areas. In particular, they assess the impact of climate change on Kerkennah’s women residents, whose livelihoods and general well-being is adversely affected. They assert that women must be seen as key stakeholders when considering policies to adapt to or mitigate climate change.

Hacer Gören and Ahmet İçduygu then turn the focus to Turkey. They explore the mobility intentions of farmers facing the impacts of climate change on their livelihoods in different parts of the country. Despite facing challenges like water stress and extreme weather events, most farmers who participated in their study expressed no intention to migrate, citing strong ties to their land and communities. Conversely, approximately one-quarter of the interviewees expressed a willingness to relocate but felt constrained from doing so by financial and logistical barriers. Drawing on their findings, Gören and İçduygu underscore the importance of adaptation measures for individuals who are unwilling to move, as well as proactive migration planning for those who would like to move but are unable to do so.

Finally, Florian Bonnefoi examines the impact of climate change on the Nile Delta region in Egypt — an area that is already highly subject to the adverse impacts of climate change. Through ethnographic fieldwork and interviews, Bonnefoi highlights the vulnerabilities of local communities, particularly farmers and fishermen, to environmental degradation in the region. He emphasizes the need for coordination among governmental, international, and civil society stakeholders to raise awareness, build infrastructure, and promote sustainable practices to enhance the resilience of coastal areas. Like Gören and İçduygu, he illustrates the need for these actors to promote choice regarding staying or leaving, and for migration to be seen as a viable adaptation measure for those who choose to move.

This compilation of briefs is based on the “Climate-Induced Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa” workshop, which was hosted at the Institute for Migration Studies (IMS) at the Lebanese American University (LAU) in Beirut, Lebanon, in October 2023. We are especially grateful to Bechara Samneh, visiting fellow at the IMS, for his logistical support. In addition to the authors and our hosts, we would like to thank Maja Janmyr, professor in international migration law at the Faculty of Law at the University of Oslo; Cathrine Brun, deputy director for research at the Centre for Lebanese Studies; and Jennifer Skulte-Ouaiss, director of the Title IX Office and MEPI gender expert at LAU, for participating as discussants and providing feedback to participants at the workshop, which greatly contributed to the discussion around these critical topics. Adrienne Bradley, Imogen Brown, Bela Koshy, and Beyza Yildirim, undergraduate students at Rice University and Trinity University, also provided invaluable assistance in the editing of these briefs. The workshop was funded with the generous support of Houston Endowment Inc. and the Kelly Day Endowment.

View the full series of briefs (PDF).

Notes

[1] Viviane Clement et al., Groundswell Part 2: Acting on Internal Climate Migration (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021), http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36248.

[2] “‘Running Dry’: Unprecedented Scale and Impact of Water Scarcity in the Middle East and North Africa,” United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) Middle East and North Africa, August 22, 2021, https://www.unicef.org/mena/press-releases/running-dry-unprecedented-scale-and-impact-water-scarcity-middle-east-and-north#_ftn1.

[3] Karina Tsui, “The Middle East Is Warming Up Twice as Fast as the Rest of the World,” The Washington Post, September 7, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/middle-east-mediterranean-climate-change/.

[4] Sosson Tadadjeu, Henri Njangang, and Andinet Woldemichael, “Are Resource-Rich Countries Less Responsive to Global Warming? Oil Wealth and Climate Change Policy,” Energy Policy 182, art. 113774 (November 2023), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113774.

This policy brief is part of a collection that examines various avenues of protection for individuals displaced by climate change and delves into the question of whether responses to climate-induced displacement should be addressed at the country, regional, or global levels. Learn more about the Human Rights in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Series and read the latest collection.

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