Foreign Policy Roundup: The 2024 Republicans

The 2024 Republican field for the presidency is a large one, with 14 contenders. They represent the usual mix of strong, middling and weak potential candidates. It’s more than four months until the first Republican caucus in January 2024, and a lot can happen in the interim within both the Republican Party and the broader American political arena. Today we can, at best, provide a snapshot of the current foreign policy positions of the Republican candidates. The upcoming debate on Aug. 23 may provide additional information.

Former President Donald J. Trump is the current front-runner and is holding a strong lead over his opponents. As a former president, he has an extensive foreign policy record; it is marked by an “America first” approach (particularly in the economic arena), suspicion of international organizations and a disregard for — sometimes rising to contempt of — traditional allies. His approach marked a historic break with previous presidents of both parties, who favored more active and cooperative engagement by the United States on the world stage. Like so much about Trump, his foreign policy was unique, and much of it was confused if not contradictory.

The war in Ukraine is the most immediate foreign policy issue confronting the United States. While there has been broad bipartisan endorsement of President Joe Biden’s approach thus far, there are now signs that Republican support for aiding Ukraine is slipping. Trump’s view on the Russia-Ukraine war is typical of his highly personalized foreign policy: He has declared that he will end the conflict within 24 hours, without specifying how. Given Trump’s long admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin (he called the dictator a “genius” when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022), any deal Trump might try to broker would likely be strongly pro-Russian. Republican candidate Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey, has been savagely critical of Trump’s stance on Ukraine. (Christie is by far the Republican candidate most willing to attack Trump on personal and policy grounds.) 

Most other Republicans take a more pro-Ukrainian stance. At one point, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis minimized the war as a “territorial dispute,” although he rapidly backed away from this comment. Most other Republican candidates — like former Vice President Mike Pence, former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, former Rep. Will Hurd and Sen. Tim Scott — take a more firmly pro-Ukrainian line. Billionaire Vivek Ramaswamy believes that the United States should negotiate an arrangement with Russia under which the U.S. would foreclose NATO membership for Ukraine in return for Moscow moving away from its de facto alliance with Beijing.

Republican candidates are nearly uniform in their hard-line approach to China. For years, the foreign policy consensus in Washington has been shifting in an anti-Chinese direction. Reasons include China’s aggressive trade policies, expansion into the South China Sea, rising belligerence over Taiwan and genocidal treatment of ethnic minorities. This shift is reflected in the China policy of the Biden administration, which has maintained Trump’s tariffs on China and moved decisively to undermine Chinese semiconductor production through the bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act of 2022. But Biden’s approach is not tough enough for Republicans, who deride the president as “soft” on China. Among the Republican field, Ramaswamy has added a wrinkle to U.S.-China policy by declaring that the United States should end its implicit security guarantee to Taiwan when it no longer needs the country’s microchips.

There is another area of broad consensus among Republican candidates: a clear predisposition to use military force against Mexican drug cartels. The shocking rise of fentanyl as a cause of death in the United States and long-standing GOP opposition to Biden’s border policies have made this an irresistible subject for Republican candidates. Trump, DeSantis, Christie and others have endorsed military action on Mexican territory. If any of these candidates are elected president and pursue such a policy without close Mexican cooperation, we can expect a sharp rift in U.S.-Mexico relations.

Right now, polling suggests that Trump will be the GOP nominee. DeSantis, who once looked like a formidable challenger to the former president, has faded in the polls. But we would be wise to remember how fickle politics can be. Lightning can occasionally strike twice, as witnessed by Trump’s unexpected nomination in 2016. No other Republican candidates have generated much enthusiasm to date. Ramaswamy is the most Trump-like in style — an entrepreneur with no government experience, who is prepared to stake out unconventional positions. Let’s see if he (or anyone else) can emerge decisively from the pack trailing Trump.

The eventual Republican nominee — whoever they may be — will move into the general election prepared to attack Joe Biden on a range of foreign policy issues. On China and Mexico, we can expect the Republican nominee to take a more aggressive line, while the war in Ukraine is a bit of a wild card. Much will depend on the state of the conflict in fall 2024; if the war is still at an ugly stalemate, we can expect public weariness with Biden’s policy toward the conflict.

Note: Baker Institute intern Max Grayer, Rice ‘24, provided invaluable assistance in preparing this commentary.

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