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Since the beginning of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, U.S.-Mexico relations have been in crisis. Trump’s criticism of Mexico and its people, his threats to deport millions of undocumented Mexicans by ending the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, his desire to build what he calls a “beautiful wall” on the southern border, and his expressed intention to abandon the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) all have created serious friction in the bilateral relationship. Trump’s unusually aggressive rhetoric and the evident inability of the Peña-Nieto administration in Mexico to deal with this foreign relations quagmire have combined to create tense conditions between politicians of both countries. For Mexico officials and intellectuals, the current state of affairs has reached the lowest point in the two countries’ relationship over the last 25 years. After years of cordial and fruitful partnership, today Mexico’s central concern in foreign affairs appears to be to resist Trump, as many journalists and political analysts have observed. For the Trump administration, however, Mexico is just one among many topics—and not necessarily the most important one—in his current presidential agenda. Under these complex historical circumstances, it is relevant to ask: How significant is the change in the bilateral relationship between the U.S. and Mexico in the era of Trump? How much has changed and how much has stayed the same in U.S.-Mexico relations? What is the future of the relationship?
To answer these questions, we need to study not only current events but also the structural conditions that propel the existing state of affairs. We must dig into the domestic politics of both countries— particularly the United States, because its holds greater weight and influence in the bilateral relationship—to find the roots of these contemporary political tensions. It is necessary to identify the historical events that influence the dilemmas of today. Only by understanding Mexico and U.S. domestic politics will we be able to comprehend the nature of current events and how these domestic conditions will determine the future of bilateral relations. “Today’s crucial foreign policy challenges arise less from problems between countries than from domestic politics within them,” political scientists Jeff D. Colgan and Robert Keohane assert.
This paper is divided into three main sections. In the first, I will describe the structural conditions that have dominated the bilateral relationship over the last 24 years, since the signing of NAFTA. Second, I will briefly examine the domestic changes Mexico and the United States each have faced in the last two decades and the serious implications they have had on bilateral relations. I will focus my analysis on two main issues, immigration and NAFTA. Finally, I will present some concluding remarks.
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