Migrant Caravans: A Deep Dive Into Mass Migration through Mexico and the Effects of Immigration Policy

Executive Summary

U.S. immigration policy remains murky in substance as well as legislatively incomplete. Polarization of the issue by American politicians and legislators has resulted in both punitive and permissive policy pronouncements over the last four U.S. presidential administrations, most of which have done little to deter migrants from crossing through Mexico into the U.S. in search of a better life.

From a policy perspective, the flow of migrants through Mexico to the United States is seemingly unstoppable — with many believing that U.S. government efforts to curtail this activity have failed. If the intent of previous and existing federal immigration laws and reforms was to conduct immigration processing in an orderly manner, the U.S. government has not succeeded. The current situation on the U.S.-Mexico border demonstrates that walls, fences, barricades, bridges, patrols, technology, and laws do not deter illegal entries. Media coverage of the “border crisis” — including reports of individual crossings and the so-called “caravans” moving through Mexico — has added to the perception that there is no end in sight to the swell of migrants at the southern border.

This research paper reviews some of the implications of at least 30 migrant caravan iterations that were detected traversing Mexico en route to the U.S. from 2017 to 2022. The migrant caravan phenomenon is viewed from a broad perspective and distilled down to the individual iterations to assess commonalities between caravan waves and to determine which “push” and “pull” factors were in place when the caravans were formed and mobilized. The individual caravan iterations are also compared against permissive and punitive U.S. and Mexican immigration policies at the time to assess any discernable cause and effect. Our analysis provides evidence that punitive policies may negatively affect the creation and movement of caravans, while permissive immigration policies may create an impetus for migrant movements. Recommendations for future action are included.

The Landscape

In 2021, the U.S. detained more than four times the number of illegal entrants encountered in previous years. According to the Pew Research Center, almost 11 million immigrants have been living and working in the U.S. since 2016, with approximately 1.6 million in Texas alone.[1] The successful entry of many of these migrants into the U.S. set the stage for the formation of large follow-on groups moving en masse toward the same goal. Witnessing how easily so many had entered the U.S., organizers in Mexico began a campaign that gave rise to the caravan phenomenon.

And so, the caravans began. The first of the migrant caravans appeared in 2017 and a total of 30 have been detected through the end of 2022, with nearly half of them forming in 2021. Although they account for only a small proportion of the daily migration flow through Central America and Mexico, caravans attract a lot of attention; the public shock of seeing people walking for hundreds of miles barefoot, carrying babies and strollers without food, creates a huge social impact on both sides of the border. Police, politicians, and policymakers alike have taken notice. Migrant caravans highlight the deep desire of so many people to reach better shores, despite the dangers, risks and exploitation that they may suffer en route to the U.S.

The first migrant caravan of 2022 launched from San Pedro Sula, Honduras, and reached the Guatemalan border on Jan. 15.[2] This caravan was comprised of hundreds of Hondurans and Nicaraguans. According to published reports, the migrants and their organizers planned to gather additional followers as they moved north. Like all other migrant caravans formed before, this iteration was not successful for a variety of reasons — including layers of blockades established by the government of Mexico.[3] In fact, the group was stopped in Guatemala just two days after their departure.[4] Figure 1[5] shows the locations where this caravan formed and stopped.

Figure 1 — Trajectory of Migrant Caravan

 

Almost all migrant caravans were halted at the Guatemalan border after 2021, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Guatemalan and Mexican governments pointed to the pandemic as a critical justification for prohibiting more migrants from further movement, and Guatemalan police used force to break up the caravans in some instances. Those arrested were sent back to their countries of origin after medical examinations due to health-related concerns. Nevertheless, according to interviews conducted at the scene, migrants who were arrested and detained stated that they had not given up their plans to continue their northward journey.[6]

The frequency of migrant caravans has gradually increased over time, swelling in recent years. Thirty migrant caravans were detected from 2017 through December 2022. Of these 30 caravans, one started in 2017, one in 2018, three formed in 2019, three in 2020, eight in 2021, and 14 formed in 2022. Most of them set off from San Pedro Sula, Honduras, and others began their journeys from cities in Mexico. When this trend appeared in 2017, the migrant caravans did not capture significant government attention, and the migrants and their sponsors succeeded in making the long journey to the U.S.-Mexico border. Although the first caravan took almost a whole year to arrive at Tijuana, Baja California Norte, Mexico, subsequent caravans learned from previous experiences and shortened the time of the trip by using vehicular transport instead of walking. In addition, the size of migrant caravans has increased, from smaller groups numbering in the hundreds to larger mass movements in the thousands. More specific data summarizing the traction of migrant caravans can be found in the Appendix.

Migrants who joined the groups left their home countries for a multitude of reasons, including poverty, violence, turbulent political scenes, and corruption. Other “push factors” include the COVID-19 pandemic and recurring weather-related events such as hurricanes, mudslides, and volcanic eruptions. Many of the migrants began their risky journeys on foot, some with their entire families, carrying infants on their backs or pushing them in baby strollers. Taking the caravan formed in January 2022 as an example, of the 622 people that comprised the group, about a quarter of them were children.[7]

Impact on Mexican Communities

Migrant caravans not only tend to increase their size as they move northward, but they also raise attention as they become a logistical and humanitarian concern for Mexican locals. Indeed, local municipalities have become increasingly concerned about their ability to cater for so many people that need assistance.[8] When these caravans reached their initial crossing point on the Mexican side of the U.S. border, entire towns or villages became overwhelmed by their presence. The groups had no choice but to form large encampments in city squares, football stadiums, and central plazas.[9]

As migrant caravans move along their trajectory, they encounter three main sources of support and assistance: 1) gratuitous assistance given by locals, 2) support provided by non-government organizations (NGOs) like the International Red Cross or other charities, and 3) help given by the local, state, and federal governments of Mexico and the U.S.[10] However, it is undeniable that local communities have felt the strain of having to accommodate such large groups, despite government and NGO support.

The Role of Transnational Criminal Organizations

Most Mexican transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) began as drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) but they have since evolved, controlling almost everything that arrives in Mexico — including migrants, money, drugs, chemicals, and weapons.

According to Uncovering Human Smuggling Patterns,[11] the majority of migrant smuggling activities through Mexico are likely to be sponsored by organized crime syndicates or TCOs that facilitate the organization and formation of caravans through the use of social media applications such as Twitter, Facebook, and other platforms. TCOs and other entities announce the formation of a caravan, gather all those interested, and charge them “smuggling fees” for being taken to the U.S. border or to destinations in the interior.[12] Migrant interviews determined that the transportation or smuggling fee varies, depending on the desired destination, with most migrants paying on average of $4,000 for simply being placed on U.S. soil.[13]

Economic Power of TCOs Threatens Mexican Stability

TCOs have been engaged with smuggling humans and migrants since they began to diversify operations in the mid-2000s. They form a significant part of the conveyor belt moving migrants from Central America, through Mexico, and onto U.S. soil. The business line of human smuggling is a formidable revenue-maker that rivals other TCO activities such as drug trafficking. Theoretically, a minimum estimate of revenues attributed to TCO profits for smuggling migrants can be calculated by tallying the number of migrants apprehended by the U.S. Border Patrol and multiplying that number by $4,000 per person; this results in millions of dollars of revenues per year and, over the past 20 years, billions of dollars of gross profits. Considering a standard economic business model,[14] which accounts for a standard expense percentage taken from TCO gross income, we can also calculate the net income of this human smuggling business line. However, human smuggling is only one of the many business lines that TCOs operate, including drug production and sales, prostitution, alcohol, pirated DVDs and CDs, oil theft, and numerous other criminal activities. The combined economic power of the TCOs in Mexico is formidable, and could represent a future threat to the national security and sovereignty of both the U.S. and Mexico.

The U.S. government has become increasingly concerned about the dangers the Mexican TCOs represent to U.S. interests. Accordingly, we reviewed the impact of immigration policies attributed to various U.S. presidential administrations to understand how their policies have an impact on the numbers of people migrating to the U.S. through Mexico.

Research Methodology

After reviewing the growing progress of migrant caravans since 2017, we validated our research by applying some specific procedures such as tracking the latest development of the situation, focusing on migrant group interviews, and using database analysis. We used open sources, including the Pew Research Center, to obtain key information such as critical facts about existing U.S. immigration policies and the Biden administration’s proposed changes.[15] We also contacted several immigration experts to obtain context and relied on Uncovering Human Smuggling Patterns,[16] a project that uses geographic information systems (GIS) mapping to track migrant flows through Mexico. Mapping the migrant routes helped us understand the capacity of migrant flows and allowed us to develop a capacity model that estimates how many people are migrating through Mexico at any particular time.

First, we reviewed data previously collected and added new data points concerning caravan movement through Central America and Mexico, as well as other countries affected by this issue. Then, we combined two general sets of data to establish:

1) a migrant caravan timeline, including when and where they start and end, how many people each caravan had when it started and ended, and other detailed information about the caravans that was available; and

2) related policy information corresponding to the time periods during which migrant caravans were actually moving, mostly collected from government reports and announcements.

By overlapping these two sets of information, we developed an assumption that immigration policies either become drivers that generate caravan formation, or hindrances that serve to dissuade, slow, or stop caravans. We then determined whether these policies effectively become “push” or “pull” factors and how they contribute to the caravan movement phenomenon.

Findings

We found that policies driven by political posturing did not appear to have had an impact on the number of migrants choosing to leave their home counties each year. The size of any given caravan appears to correlate to the organizer’s identity — whether the caravan was sponsored by a TCO, a nonprofit, or an NGO — and by general attitudes toward existing immigration policies perceived by these sponsors. We assessed that immigration policies on both sides of the border can be perceived as either permissive or punitive by nature, and these perceptions influenced — at least to some degree — the formation of migrant caravans at the time those policies were in effect. In general, it was noted that the Trump and Biden administrations held opposing immigration policy principles, and their different approaches highlight the difficulties in developing sound immigration policy.

Punitive Policies Deter Migration

In June 2017, Congress passed a bill that eliminated Affordable Care Act tax credits, which had previously been used to provide medical care to illegal immigrants.[17] In addition, the Trump administration set a limit of 45,000 on the number of refugees to be accepted into the U.S., with the stated aim of making sure that all refugees could be properly vetted.[18] Later, six months after President Trump took office, the policy known as Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Residents (DAPA)[19] — enacted during the Obama administration — was rescinded. DAPA aimed to suspend deportations of individuals living in the U.S. without legal permission who were parents of U.S. citizens. DAPA was put on hold by the federal courts as a part of a lawsuit by the state of Texas, and was never implemented.[20] In 2021, in contrast to the Trump approach, the Biden administration expressed total support for the DAPA program and promised to bring it into law.[21]

In January of 2018, Trump authorized the construction of a southern border wall and allowed Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA)[22] claimants to update their legal status every three years. He also made many efforts to improve the efficiency and accuracy of work in the border zone, including approving an additional 10,000 Border Patrol agents and Customs and Border Protection officers, modernizing and expanding ports of entry, adding a biometric entry-exit system at all ports of entry, and investing in new border technology. In April, the Trump administration signed a memo aimed at ending the “Catch and Release” policy[23] that gave legal protections to certain vulnerable populations — such as children, families, and people claiming they would be in “deadly peril” if sent back to their original country.[24] In October 2018, Trump announced that the U.S. would support sending the National Guard to the border. He also filed a request to modify a court agreement known as the Flores settlement to allow for immigrant families to be detained together at the border.[25]

In 2019, the Trump administration formulated and implemented the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP), more commonly known as the “Remain in Mexico” asylum policy.[26] The protocols required undocumented migrants with asylum claims to wait in Mexico until an asylum hearing was scheduled. This meant migrants requesting asylum under this policy would have to wait months, even years, to have a hearing before an immigration judge to determine whether they meet the criteria for asylum. According to the American Immigration Council, roughly 70,000 migrants have been returned to Mexico since this policy was enacted.[27] As a result, millions of migrants are stuck at the U.S.-Mexico border, with more arriving by the day, which is likely to exacerbate the problem.[28] However, according to USA Today, a Texas federal district court found that MPP “acted as a deterrent, leading to a significant reduction in enforcement encounters along the nation’s southern border.”[29] In 2020, our tracking presented that the number of large-size migrant caravans reaching the U.S.-Mexico border had been lowered significantly.

In 2020, Trump issued an executive order to exclude undocumented immigrants from a U.S. census count; the aim was to lower the risk of voter election fraud in the 2020 presidential elections. Other affected nations reviewed their immigration policies in response to U.S. policy changes.

Trump was also known for the unconventional practice of making policy pronouncements on Twitter, and once tweeted that if Mexico did not stop the caravan movement, 5% or higher tariffs would be imposed on all goods imported from Mexico.[30] In an apparent response to this political pressure, the Mexican government sent military troops and National Guard paramilitary officers to the Guatemalan border to block migrants from entering Mexico.[31] In this way, an unofficial U.S. policy, delivered by “tweet,” was converted into a responsive Mexican immigration enforcement policy. The combination of these two policies stopped or slowed down the migrants and the caravans from that point on. In addition, the Mexican and Guatemalan governments turned the caravans around just as international travel ground to halt due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Migrant caravans starting after 2020 rarely made it to the U.S. border. Instead, they usually went through only one country (typically from Honduras to Guatemala) or were blocked in Mexico. The combination of immigration policies and COVID-19 travel restrictions negatively impacted the migrants, and to some extent, explained the sharp decrease in migrant movement numbers in 2020.

Permissive Policies Encourage Migration

The Trump-era “Remain in Mexico” asylum policy was suspended by President Biden on his first day in office,[32] and it officially ended in June 2021. However, only six months after the suspension, the Biden administration announced a deal with the Mexican government that they would restore the Trump-era policy to force migrants seeking asylum to stay on the other side of the border until their hearing court date.[33] The nonprofit organization Human Rights First appealed Biden’s decision stating, “President Biden and his administration must stop implementing Trump policies that endangered the lives and safety of people seeking refuge in the United States.”[34] The organization further described those immigration policies as “inhumane and unjust.” A BBC news article also used the word “heartbreaking” to report the alarming living conditions of the migrant children living in camps along the border.[35]

In January 2022, Vice President Kamala Harris arrived in Honduras for the new president’s inauguration to demonstrate that the White House valued cooperating with friendly partners to address the drivers of migration from Central America.[36] However, in March, House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy responded to press reports about new border numbers, noting that “there were 164,973 encounters in February (2022), compared to 101,099 encounters in February last year (2021) — a 63% increase” and said this was a result of Biden’s failure to listen and act to prevent the crisis.[37] Moreover, McCarthy warned that Title 42 — an immigration program used by Trump to expel migrants on the basis of safeguarding public health during the COVID-19 pandemic — was an “essential tool” to deal with the border crisis, and without the tool, the problem would only worsen. In April, Biden declared his intention to end Title 42, the pandemic-era border controls put in place in March 2020, and scheduled to terminate it on May 23,[38] meaning migrants could no longer be sent back to their countries of origin due to pandemic-related concerns. This immediately led to the formation of a migrant caravan that set off for the U.S.-Mexico border, comprising many of the 170,000 migrants that had been waiting in some form or another to travel to the U.S.[39] Anticipating this movement, border authorities asked the Pentagon for help to face the probable surge of illegal migrants at the border.[40] According to a survey conducted in 2022, ending Title 42 had become Biden’s most unpopular action with 56% of U.S. voters opposed to Biden’s proposal for removing pandemic-era border controls.[41]

According to the Pew Research Center, when Trump took office, the number of migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border in 2017 and 2018 were at noticeably low levels, compared to prior administrations. For example, in 2018, approximately 303,916 migrants were encountered at the border; the lowest level on record over the past 40 years. Although the U.S. southwestern border witnessed a surge of encounters in 2019, the number decreased sharply in 2020: Apprehensions in 2019 were 851,508, two times greater than the 400,651 recorded in 2020. Meanwhile, eight of the 30 migrant caravans took to Mexican roadways during the Trump era, from 2017 to 2020. By the time Biden took office in 2021, the U.S.-Mexico border had recorded the highest level of encounters ever, reaching 1,659,206, or about 5.5 times greater than the lowest point in 2018.[42] Notably, 22 of the 30 migrant caravans — more than two thirds — occurred from 2021 until the end of 2022, during the Biden administration. This trend is visible in Figures 2.1 and 2.2.[43]

Figure 2.1 — Migrant Encounters at U.S.-Mexico Border Reached Their Highest Level on Record in 2021

 

Figure 2.2 — Apprehensions at U.S.-Mexico Border Fell Sharply in 2020 Amid COVID-19

 

On the basis of this information, we reached the conclusion that immigration policies that are perceived to be punitive in nature — including the MPP (“Remain-in-Mexico”), ending “Catch and Release,” and other Trump-era policies — affected migrant caravans negatively, or deterred their formation and movement, while perceived permissive immigration policies — including DAPA, DACA, and ending Title 42 — likely affected migrant caravans positively, or spurred their formation and movement.

What Caused the Increased Migration?

Pull Factors

Permissive immigration policies in the U.S. tend to convert migrant perceptions into “pull” factors because of the perception that a particular administration may not be “hard” on immigration, causing more migrants to cross the border illegally and stay in the U.S. The Pew Research Center reported that the majority of the encounters with people “other than Mexicans” (OTMs) in 2021 involved 308,931 from Honduras (accounting for 19% of all the encounters reported), 279,033 with people from Guatemala (17%), and 95,930 from El Salvador (6%).[44] As we can see from Figure 3,[45] in 2021 over a million of the U.S.-Mexico border encounters involved migrants from countries other than Mexico.

Figure 3 — More Than 1 Million Southwest Border Encounters in 2021 Involved People From Countries Other Than Mexico

 

Push Factors

Push factors, or the reasons that individuals might emigrate from their homes, (e.g., poverty, lack of social mobility, violence, persecution, etc.) also play a role in driving migration. Understanding the events in Central America helps to explain why Central Americans were migrating in significantly higher numbers, and provides a picture of some of the push factors in play during the last five years:

• Guatemala: As the most populous country in Central America, Guatemala has a highly unequal income distribution, with the richest 20% of the population accounting for more than 51% of Guatemala’s total national consumption. More than half of the population lives below the national poverty line, and 23% live in extreme poverty.[46] Nearly half of Guatemala’s children under the age of five are chronically malnourished, and Guatemala has one of the highest malnutrition rates in the world.
• Honduras: According to the CIA World Factbook, Honduras is the second poorest country in Central America, with 60% of the population living in poverty.[47] In addition, Honduras has one of the highest homicide rates in the world, with 37.6 murders per 100,000 inhabitants in 2020.[48]
• El Salvador: El Salvador has high levels of public debt, reaching 70.7% of GDP in 2018, and it has the top homicide rate in the world, with 60.07 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants in 2017.[49]

Other factors like climate change have caused some migrants to abandon their homes. CNN reported that spring rains have become unstable in recent years due to climate change, and as a result, people living in Central America are losing most of their crops. Recent droughts have made things particularly difficult for families already living in poverty and growing their own food.[50]

When a volcano erupted on June 3, 2018, in Guatemala, it killed hundreds of people and rendered a section of the country uninhabitable. With nothing left, many of the survivors fled to the United States. The situation was exacerbated by the fact that Honduras was still reeling from the two hurricanes that struck in late 2020, which may have caused the eighth caravan iteration (started on Dec. 10, 2020) and the ninth (started on Jan. 15, 2021). Many people are fleeing to the border due to their perception that similar disasters occur less frequently in the United States.[51] The arrival of a new government may have also been another factor influencing the formation of the 17th caravan iteration on Jan. 15, 2022 — just a few days before Honduran leftist President-elect Xiomara Castro took office on Jan. 27.[52]

In general, “push” factors can be attributed to:

1. environmental catastrophes or climate change, such as when a volcano erupts or a hurricane strikes, causing thousands of people to lose their homes and livelihoods;
2. security, such as increased or intolerable rates of crime and violence, leaving people to feel insecure about their community and society;
3. economic issues, such as high unemployment rates or people entrenched in long-lasting poverty.

Survey: “Why did you leave your home?”

According to responses given during a validated survey: “Why did you leave your home?” in Uncovering Human Smuggling Patterns, participants reported the following push factors:

• economic reasons 62%
• fear of violence 25%
• to escape illegal activity 4%
• lack of education 2%.[53]

Other reasons such as government corruption also figure in migrants’ “push” factors.

The migrant caravans of recent years have been comprised of a significant number of people from the Northern Triangle region (El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras), and these individuals make up a substantial proportion of the people apprehended at the U.S.-Mexico border. All of the above “push” factors have contributed to the increased number of migrants being encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border.

Policy Recommendations: Reforming the Immigration System

Caravans represent a small portion of the overall total number of migrants traveling across Mexico. However, the simultaneous movement of such large numbers of people en masse have impacted immigration policymaking because of the optics and the media coverage these caravans receive.

The arrival of the Biden administration brought with it a shift in tone and strategy on migration, reaffirming the country’s interest in assisting countries who share similar goals across the world. Biden has also attempted to establish a collaborative migration management system, a plan for tackling the root causes of migration in Central America, and a blueprint for reforming the United States’ immigration system.[54]

Biden’s pro-immigration policies can be seen as a catalyst for increasing “pull” factors that stimulate the migrant caravan phenomenon and attract more illegal migrants to the border. The Biden administration has promised to handle this urgent issue properly, including offering a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who are already in the United States,[55] making national immigration policy reform necessary. These measures may include putting an end to the use of Title 42, expanding various legal migration pathways, and implementing the White House report’s recommendations on the impact of climate change on migration.[56]

The following recommendations are offered to reduce the U.S.-bound flow of migrants through Mexico:

• Address the root causes of Central America’s instability — The U.S. has a national interest in tackling the core causes of violence and instability in the region. Bilateral assistance programs should be increased or developed to further strengthen judicial, security, and economic institutions in Central American nations.
• Organize “visa fairs” in each Central American country — Would-be migrants should be provided an option to apply for U.S. visas by organizing local “visa fairs” at regular intervals, e.g., once a month, to relieve the stress on U.S. embassies or consulates and to shorten the waiting period and cost of applications. In addition, programs that allow for in-country processing of unaccompanied children under potential threat in Central America, such as the “Central American Minors” (CAM) program,[57] should be reintroduced.
• Increase and improve migrant shelters on both sides of the border — Migrant shelters on both sides of the border are needed to improve migrants’ current living conditions. These shelters can serve as temporary processing staging points and as a model for the compassionate treatment of migrants.
• Assist Mexico in further developing its asylum system — Helping Mexico develop its asylum system is a realistic and practical choice since Mexico can absorb some of the thousands of asylum petitions and provide adequate protection to individuals at risk. A bilateral approach to manage this regional migratory issue is far more likely to result in successful and viable cooperation.[58]
• Set up a cross-border health program — Since Title 42 will likely end, it is necessary to set up a cross-border health program to guard the American health care system, including accelerating a vaccination program on the Mexican side for pandemic diseases. Moreover, providing some free medical clinic visits will improve migrants’ living conditions and decrease the risk of transmission of diseases by illegal border crossers.
• Accelerate the asylum hearings process — Regardless of whether migrants stay in Mexico or wait for the asylum hearing date within the U.S., it is critical for the U.S. to accelerate the processing period and increase efficiencies. It would be helpful to expand the initial screening authority for Border Patrol agents (who work between ports of entry) and Customs and Border Protection officers (who work at established ports of entry) to initially assess the viability of asylum claims before migrants cross the border or are placed in queue for consideration of legalized admission.
• Increase refugee admissions — Refugee admissions can be increased to avoid huge groups of individuals risking their lives to seek asylum. According to the Department of Homeland Security, only 948 refugees were accepted from Latin America and the Caribbean in 2020, and only a small number of refugees are expected to be processed in the next few years.[59]
• Promote a guestworker program — While there are debates about whether a guestworker program would benefit the U.S. economy, more visa designations should be created and applied to convert illegal migrants to legal residents. According to the Cato Institute, a guest worker visa program could quickly connect foreign employees with American firms while minimizing government interference.[60] Market pressures, security issues, criminal history, and health variables would determine an individual’s eligibility for one of these visas. Most illegal immigrants would be diverted into a legal system if such a scheme was effective.

Other Steps to Reduce the Flow of Migrants

Beyond immigration reform and opening more pathways to legal migration, our research suggests several other ways to reframe the discussion about immigration and help victims of human smuggling:

Hold sponsors of human smuggling accountable. Migrants should be seen as victims of circumstance, exploited by TCOs, and not as criminals who have violated the law by entering the U.S. between ports of entry (as opposed to established ports of entry). Caravans and other forms of human smuggling are operated in some cases by legitimate nonprofit organizations, but more often they are run by transnational criminal organizations (TCOs). Immigration reform cannot begin until the sponsors of organized human smuggling activities are identified, targeted for prosecution, and brought to justice for the human exploitation activities they engage in. A critical step forward is the denial of TCO revenue streams generated from human smuggling. Another critical node is the denial of communications, or an embargo against the use of social media to exploit migrants and other human smuggling victims.

Ban TCOs from social media platforms. The governments of the U.S. and Mexico should entreat communications giants such as Facebook, Twitter, and TikTok, to ban TCOs from the use of their public platforms for illegal purposes such as recruiting migrants to join caravans, demonstrating militancy, propagandizing torture and murder, and facilitating their crimes against humanity.

Create a multi-agency international task force to dismantle the revenue stream of Mexican TCOs. TCOs engage in informal smuggling contracts with migrants that wish to participate in a caravan. For a fixed cost, the smuggling contract provides services, such as transportation, security, and an informal guarantee of delivering migrants to specific locations. The average cost of the service for being delivered into the U.S. is approximately $4,000.00 per person, meaning the TCOs can generate billions of dollars in revenue.

Separate research underway (“The Economics of Human Smuggling,” by Gary J. Hale) estimates that TCOs have generated tens or hundreds of billions of dollars in criminal revenue over the past 20 years. Caravans provide opportunities for windfall profits, but human smuggling is only one line of many separate business activities for TCOs. Caravan revenues do not represent a significant portion of the overall revenues generated from human smuggling.

While the enforcement agencies of the U.S. government are limited by the authorities under which they operate, there is no “whole-of-government” approach with regard to immigration or human smuggling crimes. Instead of having Department of Homeland Security entities such as Border Patrol and Immigration and Customs Enforcement as the only agencies focusing on migration and migrant caravans, the U.S. government should create a multi-agency international task force or Human Smuggling Center to focus on dismantling the financial revenue stream of Mexican TCOs and thereby deny them any profits they could use to re-capitalize their smuggling activities. Profits from criminal activities are what drive TCOs to move migrants and commit other crimes, so a redirected focus on revenue denial would likely provide a significant impact on the overall organized movement of migrants.

Stop Referring to Caravan Migration as an Invasion. Caravan migration is not intended as a way to invade a nation by force. The worst effect of caravans has been to overwhelm U.S. and other nations’ border control agencies and overwhelm relief and support agencies. Caravan formation and movement is conducted as a means to ensure safety in numbers when traveling and, in the eyes of a TCO, is an efficient way to move large numbers of people over long distances. The total number of migrants participating in all of the caravans detected over the last five years pales in comparison to the combined number of migrants crossing into the U.S. in any particular year. The perceived impact of migrant caravans moving through Mexico is exacerbated by media reporting and political posturing. The true negative impact of caravans is felt by 1) the migrants who suffer in many ways during their journeys, 2) Mexican communities, where locals struggle to provide humanitarian support to the large groups, sometimes numbering hundreds or thousands, that arrive at their northern border cities at any given time, and 3) the U.S. government, which does not have a functional immigration system capable of systematically absorbing such large numbers of migrants arriving at the southern border, regardless of the method by which migrants chose to move — individually or en masse.

Support Common-Sense Policy Solutions Instead of Punitive, Stop-gap Measures. U.S. and Mexico immigration policies are among the many drivers of migrant movement activity, whether migrants travel individually or en masse. Some of these policies or drivers can be defined as “pull” factors, and changes in policies can sometimes be tied to the formation and movement of caravans.

However, the optics of the caravans — especially those comprised of migrating family units and children — may cause U.S. and Mexican immigration policymakers to respond with knee-jerk reactions, usually by issuing some form of punitive or stop-gap measure. A weakness of any government is politics. Political views tend to drive U.S. federal immigration policy instead of supporting the enactment of laws that provide common-sense approaches and solutions. Frequent changes in elected bodies lead to frequent changes of policy, to reflect the currently prevailing social view. Continuity of government policy in general, and regarding immigration specifically, is sorely lacking. This must change if the problem is to be fully addressed.

Outlook for 2023 and Beyond: Revenue Denial for Armed Criminal Organizations Will Be Key

The formation of caravans is expected to continue and will become normalized as a TCO method of conveying large numbers of migrants to the U.S. southern border. There will be surges in caravan iterations based on perceived opportunities that conflicting or changing U.S. immigration policies provide to migrants and their transportation providers. The U.S. government will continue to flip-flop in its immigration policy directives, especially every time the White House changes hands from one party to the other. The same will happen in Congress; it will depend on which political side wins the public’s favor and how contentious the immigration issue remains.

This leaves immigration policy development hanging out on a limb that could well break if the current situation and future migration surges are not addressed logically and humanely. The time for serious immigration reform is now. The U.S. cannot accept the current chaos; it must be addressed. We need to establish a strategic national immigration goal and move toward it with consistency and logic in policy development.

It’s time to go beyond the DTO and TCO monikers and accept that in Mexico these cartels are better described as armed criminal organizations (ACOs). These ACOs are a major fighting force that rivals the Mexican Army, and they could take over Mexico with little effort. The funds these ACOs generate from human smuggling, drug cultivation and production, and other criminal activities, enables them to purchase military hardware and arms, strengthening their militancy. Successful denial of revenue (hundreds of billions are at stake) to these Mexican ACOs would:

• reduce their growing ability to threaten Mexican national sovereignty and integrity,
• dampen their threats to America’s commerce and economy,
• limit their abilities to continuously re-capitalize their enterprise, and
• by extension, reduce their capacity to continue flooding the U.S. with deadly drugs.

A new strategy is needed, and the focus should be on ACO revenue denial, a serious effort to sever the lifeline of funding that sustains so much criminal activity and affects so many — including caravans and their migrant marchers.

Appendix

Caravan 1

	Start	End
When	Apr 10, 2017	Apr 29, 2018
Where	San Pedro Sula, Honduras	San Ysidro, Tijuana, Mexico
How many	107	1,200[61]

 

Caravan 2

	Start	End
When	Oct 12, 2018	Dec 12, 2018
Where	San Pedro Sula, Honduras	Tijuana, Mexico
How many	160	660

 

Caravan 3

	Start	End
When	Feb 26, 2019	Jul 1, 2019
Where	Mexico’s southern border with Guatemala	Mexico and U.S. border, EL PASO
How many	1,500	The number of migrants captured at the U.S.-Mexico border reached around 130,000[62]

 

Caravan 4

	Start	End
When	Mar 25, 2019	Oct 25, 2019
Where	Tapachula, Chiapas and trekking	Iin Matamoros, Mexico
How many	2,500[63]	2,000

 

Caravan 5

	Start	End
When	Oct 12, 2019	Feb 15, 2020
Where	Tapachula, Mexico[64]	25 miles north of Tapachula
How many	More than 1,000	Nearly 1,000[65]

 

Caravan 6

	Start	End
When	Jun 30, 2020	Few days after
Where	San Pedro Sula, Honduras	Tijuana, Mexico (planned)
How many	(“Caravana de Imigrantes Hondureños 504.”)	The number of migrants waiting for the borders to open on June 30 to enter Mexico was at least 75,000[66]

 

Caravan 7

	Start	End
When	Sep 30, 2020[67]	Oct 2, 2020
Where	San Pedro Sula, Honduras	Mexico’s southern border[68]
How many	2,000[69]	More than 3,000[70]

 

Caravan 8

	Start	End
When	Dec 10, 2020[71]	Same day
Where	San Pedro Sula, Honduras	Before they arrived at the boundary with Guatemala
How many	Roughly 600	Expectations have been raised that immigration policy may become more lenient with the election of Democrat Joe Biden as U.S. president

 

Caravan 9

	Start	End
When	Jan 15, 2021[72]	Jan 18, 2021[73]
Where	San Pedro Sula, Honduras (San Pedro Sula’s bus terminal — main departure point for caravans in the past)[74]	In Guatemala on Monday, near the village of Vado Hondo
How many	More than 1,000[75] (estimates included as many as 7,000 people)[76]	About 4,000 migrants, primarily from Honduras, who had been camped out, were dispersed by security forces

 

Caravan 10

	Start	End
When	Mar 30, 2021[77]	Same day
Where	San Pedro Sula, Honduras	Honduras (Turned back by Honduran police)
How many	Several Hundred	Several Hundred

 

Caravans 11-13

	Start	End
When	Three Caravans in week of Aug 30, 2021	Sep 2, 2021
Where	Tapachula, Chiapas	Escuintla (Mainly detained)[78]
How many	Hundreds of Central American and Caribbean migrants[79]	At least 950 (600+350)

 

Caravan 14

	Start	End
When	Sep 4, 2021	Sep 6, 2021
Where	Tapachula, Southern Mexican city	Chiapas
How many	400[80]	600 (150 detained)[81]

 

Caravan 15

	Start	End
When	Oct 27, 2021[82]	Dec 23, 2021
Where	the village of Huixtla	splits up on buses headed north
How many	Thousands (at least 2,000)	3,000

 

Caravan 16

	Start	End
When	Nov 26, 2021	Nov 29, 2021
Where	Southern Mexican state of Chiapas	the state of Chiapas
How many	About 1,000[83]	300 detained[84]

 

Caravan 17

	Start	End
When	Jan 15, 2022	Jan 17, 2022
Where	San Pedro Sula, Honduras	Guatemalan border
How many	600	622 apprehended

 

Caravan 18

	Start	End
When	Apr 1, 2022	Planning to set off
Where	Tapachula, Mexico	Mexico City
How many	500[85]	Unknown

 

Caravan 19 (largest ever)

	Start	End
When	Jun 6, 2022	Jun 24, 2022
Where	Tapachula, Mexico	Mexico City
How many	15,000 expected[86]	7,000 disbanded (Jun 11)[87]

 

Caravan 20

	Start	End
When	Jun 24, 2022	Same day
Where	Tapachula, Mexico	Disbanded in nearby towns[88]
How many	2,000[89]	Thousands

 

Caravan 21

	Start	End
When	Jul 1, 2022	Jul 3, 2022
Where	Tapachula, Mexico	Huixtla, Mexico[90]
How many	Thousands of people[91]	Several thousand dissolved

 

Caravan 22

	Start	End
When	Jul 25, 2022	In a few days
Where	Chiapas, Mexico	Disbanded
How many	3,700[92]	Several thousand

 

Caravan 23

	Start	End
When	Aug 22, 2022	Next few days
Where	Tapachula, Mexico	Disbanded by Mexican authorities[93]
How many	500[94]	Several hundred

 

Caravans 24-29

	Start	End
When	Aug 2022 (total 7 in August)	Sep 2022
Where	Tapachula, Mexico	Waiting at the border for permits
How many	1000 (August 30)[95]	Thousands

 

Caravan 30

	Start	End
When	Dec 2022	Dec 9, 2022
Where	Chihuahua, Mexico	“Retain” in Jiménez, a small city south of Chihuahua City
How many	1,500[96]	Up to 1,500

 

Endnotes

 

---

[1] Pew Research Center, “U.S. Unauthorized Immigrant Population Estimates by State, 2016,” February 5, 2019, www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/interactives/u-s-unauthorized-immigrants-by-state.

[2] Gustavo Palencia, “Hundreds of U.S.-Bound Migrants in Caravan Stuck at Guatemala Border,” Reuters, January 16, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/hundreds-us-bound-migrants-set-off-honduras-first-caravan-2022-2022-01-15/.

[3] Stan Marek, “How to Stop the Migrant Caravans That Are Headed to Texas,” Texas Monthly, January 18, 2022, www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/how-to-stop-caravans-migrants-texas.

[4] Vatican News, “Guatemalan Authorities Stop Migrant Caravan Headed to US,” January 16, 2022, www.vaticannews.va/en/world/news/2022-01/guatemalan-authorities-stop-migrant-caravan-headed-to-us.html.

[5] UNICEF, “The Perilous Journey North,” August, 2018, https://www.unicef.org/child-alert/central-america-mexico-migration.

[6] DeMeo, Chris. “Migrant Caravan Causing Worry for Border Patrol Agents,” FOX, January 17, 2022, https://www.fox7austin.com/video/1024094.

[7] Lexi Lonas. “Guatemala Sends Back Hundreds of Migrants in Caravan Headed to US,” The Hill, January 18, 2022, thehill.com/latino/590235-guatemala-sends-back-hundreds-of-migrants.

[8] Sonia Perez D., “Food, Water, Ride: Guatemalans Aid Honduran Caravan Migrants Traveling to U.S.,” Chicago Tribune, August 22, 2019, https://www.chicagotribune.com/nation-world/ct-hondurans-migrant-caravan-guatemala-20181017-story.html.

[9] Bernd Debusmann Jr, “Why Are So Many Haitians at the US-Mexico Border?,” BBC News, September 24, 2021, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-58667669.

[10] United Nations, “Migrant Caravan: Un Agency Helping ‘Exhausted’ People Home,” November 30, 2018, https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/11/1027121.

[11] This is a report prepared for the United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to better manage interdiction resources at the U.S. southern border: Gary J. Hale, “Uncovering Human Smuggling Patterns from Guatemala to the United States,” UH.edu, 2018, https://www.uh.edu/bti/research/Uncovering-Human-Smuggling-Patterns-from-Guatemala-to-the-US/human_smuggling_patterns_final-gh_24oct18.pdf.

[12] United Nations, “Mexico: With Scores Killed in Truck Crash, Un Urges States to Agree ‘Controlled’ Migration,” December 10, 2021, https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/12/1107682.

[13] Hale, “Uncovering Human Smuggling Patterns from Guatemala to the United States.”

[14] Michael H. Morris, “The entrepreneur’s business model: toward a unified perspective,” June, 2005, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2003.11.001.

[15] Krogstad, Jens Manuel, and Ana Gonzalez-Barrera. , “Key Facts about U.S. Immigration Policies and Biden’s Proposed Changes,” Pew Research Center, January 11, 2022, www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/01/11/key-facts-about-u-s-immigration-policies-and-bidens-proposed-changes.

[16] Hale, “Uncovering Human Smuggling Patterns from Guatemala to the United States.”

[17] Frank J. Thompson, “Six ways Trump has sabotaged the Affordable Care Act,” Brookings, October 9, 2020, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/10/09/six-ways-trump-has-sabotaged-the-affordable-care-act/#:~:text=The%20suit%20reasoned%20that%2C%20since,and%20invalidated%20the%20entire%20ACA.

[18] American Immigration Council, “An Overview of U.S. Refugee Law and Policy,” September 20, 2021, https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/overview-us-refugee-law-and-policy.

[19] Frank Gogol, “What Is Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Residents (DAPA)?,” Stilt, March 16, 2022, https://www.stilt.com/blog/2021/08/deferred-action-parents-of-americans-lawful-permanent-residents-dapa/.

[20] Emma Platoff, “A Texas Lawsuit Killed One Obama Immigration Policy. Can the Same Strategy Defeat Daca?,” Texas Tribune, May 7, 2018, https://www.texastribune.org/2018/05/07/texas-lawsuit-daca-dapa-ken-paxton/.

[21] Frank Gogol, “What Is Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Residents (DAPA)?,” Stilt, March 16, 2022, https://www.stilt.com/blog/2021/08/deferred-action-parents-of-americans-lawful-permanent-residents-dapa/.

[22] U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, “Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals: Response to January 2018 Preliminary Injunction,” August 24, 2020, https://www.uscis.gov/archive/deferred-action-for-childhood-arrivals-response-to-january-2018-preliminary-injunction.

[23] Federal Register, “Ending Catch and Release at the Border of the United States,” April 13, 2018, https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2018/04/13/2018-07962/ending-catch-and-release-at-the-border-of-the-united-states-and-directing-other-enhancements-to.

[24] Dara Lind, “‘Catch and Release,’ Explained: The Heart of Trump’s New Border Agenda ,” Vox, April 9, 2018, https://www.vox.com/2018/4/9/17190090/catch-release-loopholes-border-immigrants-trump.

[25] American Immigration Lawyers Association, “AILA — Documents Relating to Flores v. Reno Settlement Agreement on Minors in Immigration Custody,” June 22, 2022, https://www.aila.org/infonet/flores-v-reno-settlement-agreement.

[26] Annika Kim Constantino, “White House Reaches Deal to Reinstate Trump-Era ‘Remain-in-Mexico’ Asylum Policy after Court Order,” CNBC, December 2, 2021, https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/02/white-house-reaches-deal-to-reinstate-trump-era-remain-in-mexico-asylum-policy.html.

[27] American Immigration Council, “The ‘Migrant Protection Protocols,’” January 7, 2022, https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/migrant-protection-protocols.

[28] Reuters, “A New Migrant Wave Pleads for Answers in Mexico,” January 10, 2021, https://mobile.reuters.com/video/watch/missouri-governor-indicted-on-felony-inv-id724015942?chan=94w50zwf.

[29] John Fritze, “Supreme Court to Revisit Biden Administration Effort to Shut down ‘Remain in Mexico’ Policy,” USA Today, February 20, 2022, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/02/18/supreme-court-revisit-remain-mexico-policy-migrants/6850071001/.

[30] Annie Karni, Ana Swanson, and Michael D. Shear, “Trump Says U.S. Will Hit Mexico with 5% Tariffs on All Goods,” New York Times, May 30, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/30/us/politics/trump-mexico-tariffs.html.

[31] Al Jazeera, “Migrant Caravan Sets out for the US amid Covid-19 Concerns,” October 1, 2020, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/1/honduran-caravan-travels-to-the-us-amid-covid-19-concerns.

[32] Ted Hesson et al., “Biden Swiftly Begins Sweeping Away Trump’s Immigration Barriers,” Reuters, January 20, 2021, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-immigration/biden-swiftly-begins-sweeping-away-trumps-immigration-barriers-idUSKBN29P12L.

[33] Annika Kim Constantino, “White House Reaches Deal,” CNBC, December 2, 2021, https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/02/white-house-reaches-deal-to-reinstate-trump-era-remain-in-mexico-asylum-policy.html.

[34] Eleanor Acer, “With Re-Termination of ‘Remain in Mexico,” Human Rights First Urges Permanent End to Inhumane Border Policies,” Human Rights First, October 29, 2021, https://humanrightsfirst.org/library/with-re-termination-of-remain-in-mexico-human-rights-first-urges-permanent-end-to-inhumane-border-policies-2/.

[35] Hilary Andersson, “‘Heartbreaking’ Conditions in US Migrant Child Camp,” BBC News, June 23, 2021, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57561760.

[36] Franco Ordoñez, “Vice President Harris Looks for a Fresh Start on Migration Issues in Honduras,” NPR, January 27, 2022, https://www.npr.org/2022/01/27/1075900070/vice-president-harris-looks-for-a-fresh-start-on-migration-issues-in-honduras.

[37] Adam Shaw, “McCarthy Says Biden Has ‘Failed to Listen or Act’ on Border Crisis, as February Numbers Climb,” Fox News, March 15, 2022, https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mccarthy-biden-border-crisis-feb-numbers-show-increase.

[38] Andrew R. Arthur, “SCOTUS Keeps Title 42 Going — For Now,” Center for Immigration Studies, December 28, 2022, https://cis.org/Arthur/SCOTUS-Keeps-Title-42-Going-Now.

[39] Ronny Reyes et al., “First Migrant Caravan Sets off from Mexico to the US after Biden Revealed He Would End Title 42,” Daily Mail Online, March 31, 2022, https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10670879/First-migrant-caravan-sets-Mexico-Biden-revealed-end-Title-42.html.

[40] Callie Patteson, “Texas Gov. Greg Abbott to Send Buses of Migrants to DC Ahead of Title 42 Surge,” New York Post, April 6, 2022, https://nypost.com/2022/04/06/texas-gov-greg-abbott-to-send-buses-of-migrants-to-dc-ahead-of-surge/.

[41] Cameron Easley, “Ending Title 42 Is Biden’s Most Unpopular Move Yet,” Morning Consult, April 6, 2022, https://morningconsult.com/2022/04/06/biden-approval-rating-immigration-title-42/.

[42] John Gramlich and Alissa Scheller, “ What’s Happening at the U.S.-Mexico Border in 7 Charts,” Pew Research Center, November 12, 2021, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/11/09/whats-happening-at-the-u-s-mexico-border-in-7-charts/.

[43] Ana Gonzalez-Barrera, “After Surging in 2019, Migrant Apprehensions at U.S.-Mexico Border Fell Sharply in Fiscal 2020,” Pew Research Center, November 13, 2020, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/04/after-surging-in-2019-migrant-apprehensions-at-u-s-mexico-border-fell-sharply-in-fiscal-2020-2/.

[44] Gramlich and Scheller, “What’s Happening at the U.S.-Mexico Border in 7 Charts.”

[45] Ibid.

[46] World Bank, “The World Bank In Guatemala,” https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/guatemala/overview#1.

[47] Central Intelligence Agency, “Honduras — The World Factbook,” https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/honduras/.

[48] Jonathan Kissam, “U.S. Government Policy the ‘Root Cause’ of Migrant Caravans,” UEUnion.org, June 23, 2021, https://www.ueunion.org/ue-news-feature/2021/us-government-policy-the-root-cause-of-migrant-caravans.

[49] Teresa Romero, “Homicide Rate in El Salvador 2021,” Statista, February 15, 2022, https://www.statista.com/statistics/696152/homicide-rate-in-el-salvador/.

[50] John D. Sutter, “One Suspected Driver of the ‘Caravan’: Climate Change,” CNN, December 11, 2018, https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/11/politics/climate-caravan-honduras-sutter/index.html.

[51] Natalie Kitroeff and Daniele Volpe, “‘We Are Doomed’ : Devastation from Storms Fuels Migration in Honduras,” New York Times, April 6, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/06/world/americas/migration-honduras-central-america.html.

[52] Gustavo Palencia, “Hundreds of U.S.-Bound Migrants in Caravan Stuck at Guatemala Border,” Reuters, January 16, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/hundreds-us-bound-migrants-set-off-honduras-first-caravan-2022-2022-01-15/.

[53] Hale, “Uncovering Human Smuggling Patterns from Guatemala to the United States.”

[54] WOLA, “Biden’s First Year Policies toward Latin America,” January 21, 2022, https://www.wola.org/analysis/bidens-first-year-policies-toward-latin-america/.

[55] Adam Shaw and Griff Jenkins, “Migrant Caravan Demands Biden Administration ‘Honors Its Commitments’,” Fox News, January 17, 2021, https://www.foxnews.com/politics/migrant-caravan-biden-administration-commitments.

[56] White House, “Report on the Impact of Climate Change on Migration,” October 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Report-on-the-Impact-of-Climate-Change-on-Migration.pdf.

[57] Department of Homeland Security, “Recommendation on the Central American Minors (CAM) Refugee/Parole Program,” December 21, 2016, https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/CIS%20Ombudsman%20Recommendation%20on%20the%20CAM%20Refugee-Parole%20Program.pdf.

[58] Global Compact on Refugees, “MIRPS - Regional Response in Central America and Mexico,” UNHCR, 2021, https://globalcompactrefugees.org/gcr-action/countries/mexico#:~:text=Mexico%20promotes%20the%20integration%20of,and%20education%20at%20all%20levels.

[59] Department of Homeland Security, “Fiscal Year 2020 Refugees and Asylees Annual Flow Report,” March 8, 2022, https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2022-03/22_0308_plcy_refugees_and_asylees_fy2020_1.pdf.

[60] Cato Institute, “The Costs and Benefits of Guest Worker Visas,” Cato.org, 2013, https://www.cato.org/policy-report/march/april-2013/costs-benefits-guest-worker-visas.

[61] Kirk Semple and Miriam Jordan, “Migrant Caravan of Asylum Seekers Reaches U.S. Border,” New York Times, April 29, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/29/world/americas/mexico-caravan-trump.html.

[62] Sanskrita Tripathi, “The Infamous Caravan 2019: A Veracious Account of Latinos Struggle and Façade of US Politics,” Asian Institute of Diplomacy and International Affairs, August 3, 2020, http://www.aidiaasia.org/research-article/the-infamous-caravan-2019-a-veracious-account-of-latinos-struggle-and-fa-ade-of-us-politics.

[63] Associated Press, “New Migrant Caravan of 2,500 Sets Out for U.S. Through Mexico,” azcentral, March 26, 2019, https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/immigration/2019/03/26/mexico-migrant-caravan-2-500-sets-out-united-states-border/3282713002/.

[64] Sandra Cuffe, “Mexican National Guard Blocks US-Bound Migrant Caravan,” Aljazeera, October 13, 2019, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/10/13/mexican-national-guard-blocks-us-bound-migrant-caravan.

[65] James Frederick, “Migrant Caravan Met With Tougher Mexico Border Security,” NPR’s All Things Considered, January 18, 2020, https://www.npr.org/2020/01/18/797631324/migrant-caravan-met-with-tougher-mexico-border-security.

[66] Yucatan Times, “New Migrant Caravan Gets Ready to Enter Mexican Soil, Activist Says 30% Have COVID-19,” June 24, 2020, https://www.theyucatantimes.com/2020/06/new-migrant-caravan-gets-ready-to-enter-mexican-soil-activist-says-30-have-covid-19/.

[67] Sonia Pérez D. and Claudio Escalon, “Hundreds of Honduran Migrants set out for US Amid Pandemic,” yahoo!news, October 1, 2020, https://news.yahoo.com/hundreds-honduran-migrants-set-us-153847468.html.

[68] AFP, “Mexico deploys military to block migrant caravan,” yahoo!news, October 2, 2020, https://news.yahoo.com/mexico-deploys-military-block-migrant-232044329.html.

[69] Brie Stimson, “Hondurans in migrant caravan bused back after entering Guatemala,” Fox News, October 4, 2020, https://www.foxnews.com/world/hondurans-in-migrant-caravan-bused-back-after-entering-guatemala.

[70] Anthony Harrup, “Honduran Migrant Caravan Disbands in Guatemala” Wall Street Journal, October 5, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/honduran-migrant-caravan-disbands-in-guatemala-11601927728#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s.

[71] Claudio Escalon, “Hondurans Forming Migrant Caravan for US Stopped in Homeland,” yahoo!news, December 10, 2020, https://news.yahoo.com/hundreds-hondurans-gather-walk-caravan-182809238.html.

[72] Gustavo Palencia, “Migrant Caravan Will not be Allowed to Pass, Says U.S. Border Official,” yahoo!news, January 8, 2021, https://news.yahoo.com/migrant-caravan-not-allowed-pass-032505911.html.

[73] BBC, “Migrant caravan: Mexico presses US to reform immigration policies,” January 19, 2021, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-55714865.

[74] Maria Verza, “Honduran Migrants Trek North Toward Guatemalan Border,” yahoo!news, January 13, 2021, https://news.yahoo.com/honduran-migrants-head-guatemala-border-044535392.html.

[75] Delmer Martínez and Claudio Escalon, “Migrant Caravan on The Move in Honduras in Uncertain Times,” yahoo!news, January 15, 2021, https://news.yahoo.com/migrant-caravan-move-honduras-uncertain-133506939.html.

[76] Kirk Semple and Nic Wirtz, “Migrant Caravan, Now in Guatemala, Tests Regional Resolve to Control Migration,” New York Times, January 17, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/17/world/americas/migrant-caravan-us-biden-guatemala-immigration.html.

[77] Yoseph Amaya, “Honduras Police Turn Back U.S.-Bound Migrant Caravan,” yahoo!news, March 30, 2021, https://news.yahoo.com/migrant-caravan-hundreds-departs-honduras-145735309.html.

[78] MND Staff, “Security forces hunt down migrants, break up a third caravan in Chiapas,” Mexico News Daily, September 3, 2021, https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/security-forces-hunt-down-migrants/.

[79] Jose Torres, “Migrant caravan in Mexico presses on, meets growing resistance,” yahoo!news, August 31, 2021, https://news.yahoo.com/migrant-caravan-mexico-presses-meets-034821658.html.

[80] Jose Torres, “New migrant caravan sets off for US from southern Mexico,” Reuters, September 4, 2021, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/new-migrant-caravan-sets-off-us-southern-mexico-2021-09-04/.

[81] MND Staff, “Forces Break Up a Fourth Caravan of Migrants Leaving Tapachula, Detain 150,” Mexico News Daily, September 6, 2021, https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/forces-break-up-a-fourth-caravan-of-migrants/.

[82] Jose Torres and Lizbeth Diaz, “Caravan of Mostly Central American Migrants Advance Slowly Across Mexico,” Reuters, October 27, 2021, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/caravan-hundreds-migrants-press-north-across-mexico-2021-10-27/.

[83] Jose Luiz Gonzalez, “‘We need to work’: Hundreds of migrants form new U.S.-bound caravan in Mexico,” yahoo!news, November 26, 2021, https://news.yahoo.com/hundreds-migrants-form-u-bound-195702964.html.

[84] TeleSUR, “Mexico Contains Advance of Several Central American Caravan,” November 29, 2021, https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Mexico-Contains-Advance-Of-Several-Central-American-Caravan-20211129-0006.html.

[85] Edgar H. Clemente, “Migrants march from south Mexico as U.S. moves to end COVID asylum ban,” April 1, 2022, https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-04-01/migrants-march-from-south-mexico-as-us-lifts-covid-ban.

[86] Michael Lee, “Migrant in Potentially the Largest Caravan Ever Demands Biden Keep Asylum Promise,” Fox News, June 6, 2022, https://www.foxnews.com/world/migrant-largest-caravan-biden-promise-asylum.

[87] Reuters, “Mexico Disbands Migrant Caravan That Set Out for U.S. During Americas Summit,” June 11, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexico-disbands-migrant-caravan-that-set-out-us-during-americas-summit-2022-06-11/.

[88] Jose Torres and Lizbeth Diaz, “Venezuelan migrants in southern Mexico form U.S.-bound caravan,” Reuters, June 24, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuelan-migrants-southern-mexico-form-us-bound-caravan-2022-06-24/.

[89] Edgar H. Clemente, “Migrant Caravan in South Mexico Demands Corridor to Border,” yahoo!news, June 24, 2022, https://news.yahoo.com/migrant-caravan-south-mexico-demands-165709926.html.

[90] Edgar H. Clemente, Latest Migrant Caravan Breaks Up in Mexico After 2 Days,” AP News, July 3, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/mexico-caribbean-united-states-immigration-central-america-6cc5e8cc53c9a50edb33847bf36d907d.

[91] Jose Torres, “Migrant Caravan Leaves Southern Mexico Days After Texas Tragedy,” Reuters, July 1, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/migrant-caravan-leaves-southern-mexico-days-after-texas-tragedy-2022-07-01/.

[92] La Izquierda Diario Mexico, “New Migrant Caravan Heads to the U.S. — Open the Borders,” Left Voice, July 28, 2022, https://www.leftvoice.org/new-migrant-caravan-heads-to-the-u-s-open-the-borders/.

[93] Xinhua News Agency, “New US-Bound Migrant Caravan Sets Off From Southern Mexico,” China Daily, August 23, 2022, https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202208/23/WS63048ab4a310fd2b29e73cff.html.

[94] Viviana Angélica Trujillo López, “New Migrant Caravan Leaves for U.S.-Mexico Border,” Al Día, August 22, 2022, https://aldianews.com/en/politics/policy/new-migrant-caravan-0.

[95] La Prensa Latina, “August’s Seventh Migrant Caravan Heading North From Southern Mexico,” August 30, 2022, https://www.laprensalatina.com/augusts-7th-migrant-caravan-heading-north-from-southern-mexico/.

[96] El Paso Matters, “Caravan of up to 1,500 migrants headed to border stopped in Chihuahua,” December 9, 2022, https://elpasomatters.org/2022/12/09/migrant-caravan-headed-to-border-title-42-ending-stopped-in-chihuahua/.

 

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