A Political Earthquake In Argentina’s Vaca Muerta: The 2023 Neuquén Gubernatorial Election

On April 16, Rodolfo “Rolo” Figueroa did what no gubernatorial candidate has ever done in Neuquén over the past 60 years: defeat the gubernatorial candidate of the long-governing Movimiento Popular Neuquino (MPN). Figueroa, a MPN dissident backed by a diverse coalition of parties and groups, narrowly (35.6% to 33.1%) defeated Neuquén Lt. Governor Marcos Koopmann of the MPN. Koopmann was the handpicked candidate of the two MPN leaders who have governed Neuquén over the past 16 years (Jorge Sapag and Omar Gutiérrez) and overseen the province’s transformation into Argentina’s undisputed oil and natural powerhouse.

Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale play contains the second largest shale gas and fourth largest shale oil reserves in the world. The Vaca Muerta is centered in the province of Neuquén, which has allowed the province to become Argentina’s unrivalled producer of natural gas (63% of Argentine production) and petroleum (50% of Argentine production).

Figueroa’s victory will in the short term alter the status quo to which companies with investments and operations in the Vaca Muerta have become accustomed over the past 16 years. When he assumes office in December, Figueroa is expected to make relatively widespread changes across the provincial government’s ministries, semi-autonomous organizations and other institutions as he replaces a substantial proportion of the current Sapag/Gutiérrez aligned officials with his own people. These modifications of the provincial organizational chart will lead to the removal of a large number of the specific provincial officials with whom oil and gas companies have been interacting in recent years.

It is however important to keep in mind that while the MPN formally lost the gubernatorial election, Figueroa was until last year a member of the MPN, and the MPN and its approach to policy and politics are imprinted in Figueroa’s DNA. As a result, the pro-growth and pro-development policies along with the productive working relationship with the oil and natural gas industry which have characterized the Neuquén provincial government’s approach to the management and regulation of the Vaca Muerta are not expected to change under Figueroa’s leadership.

Figueroa served as current MPN Governor Omar Gutierréz’s lieutenant governor during his first term (2015-19) and has been a national deputy since 2021 after defeating Gutiérrez and Sapag’s handpicked candidate in the 2021 MPN national deputy primary election. Figueroa opted to not compete against Koopmann in a MPN gubernatorial primary election due in large part to Koopmann being backed by Gutiérrez and Sapag, as well as by the leaders of the Oil and Gas Workers Union, Marcelo Rucci (the current leader) and Guillermo Pereyra (who led the union for more than 30 years until stepping down in 2021).

In the April 16 gubernatorial election Figueroa received 35.6% of the vote compared to 33.1% for Koopmann (with 99.3% of precincts reporting). Peronist Ramón Rioseco of the Frente de Todos Neuquino won 12.7%, Carlos Eguía (backed by libertarian presidential candidate Javier Milei) won 8.0%, Pablo Cervi of the rump Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) alliance won 3.8%, far-left candidate Patricia Jure won 3.3%, and 3.5% of voters cast a blank ballot.

Neuquén allows fusion candidacies through which more than one party or alliance can nominate the same gubernatorial candidate, with all votes for that candidate from the multiple nominations summed together for the purpose of determining the winner. On Sunday there were 26 legislative lists backing the six gubernatorial candidates, with these legislative lists competing for the 35 seats in the unicameral provincial legislature.

Figueroa appeared as the candidate of 9 provincial legislative lists, including that of his own party (Comunidad) along with the joint list of two parties which at the national level belong to the opposition JxC coalition, Propuesta Federal (PRO) and Nuevo Compromiso Neuquino (NCN). Former president Mauricio Macri (2015-19) played a pivotal role in the PRO’s decision to back Figueroa instead of Cervi (a member of the PRO’s principal partner in the JxC at the national level, the Unión Cívica Radical), a decision that was quite possibly the difference maker in the outcome of the gubernatorial contest. The PRO list provided Figueroa with 4.2% of the 35.6% he received and the NCN list provided an additional 3.5%, with both percentages greater than Figueroa’s margin of victory over Koopmann (2.5%).

Figueroa’s Comunidad won 7 of the 35 provincial legislative seats while the joint PRO-NCN list won 4 seats. Two other lists which had Figueroa as their gubernatorial candidate won legislative seats, Arriba Neuquén (2 seats) and Avanzar Neuquén (1 seat). In all, the lists which backed Figueroa won 14 of the 35 seats in the provincial legislature. This is 4 seats short of an absolute majority (18 seats), but Figueroa should have little trouble reaching an absolute majority when needed due to his future control of the Neuquén provincial executive branch and the flexibility and malleability of some of the other 21 deputies-elect.

Of the 10 legislative lists supporting Koopmann, only two won legislative seats. The MPN list garnered 9 seats while Juntos (not related to the JxC) won 1, for a total of 10. The Energía Ciudadana legislative list headed by Martín Pererya, (son of Guillermo Pereyra), won only 1.4% of the vote and did not come close to winning even a single seat.

Cumplir, the party of the outsider libertarian Eguía, won 4 seats, the Peronist Frente de Todos Neuquino won 3 seats, the far-left Frente de Izquierda y de Trabajadores won 2 seats, and the official JxC list backing Cervi won 1 seat.

On April 16 in the neighboring Vaca Muerta province of Río Negro, as expected Alberto Weretilneck (candidate of the provincial party Juntos Somos Río Negro) won the gubernatorial election with 42.0% of the vote, 18.1% ahead of his closest rival, Juntos por el Cambio’s (JxC) Aníbal Tortoriello (23.9%), with only one of the other seven gubernatorial candidates finishing in double digits (Silvia Horne of the Peronist Vamos con Todos alliance with 10.6%).

Weretilneck served as Río Negro’s governor between 2012 and 2019, and, after being prevented from running for re-election by a constitutional term limit on no more than one consecutive re-election, has continued to hold the reins of power in the province during the governorship of his handpicked successor, Arabela Carreras (2019-2023). Legislative lists backing Weretilneck won (with 95.3% of precincts reporting) 24 of the 46 seats in the unicameral provincial legislature, providing the governor-elect with sufficient legislative support so as to be able to enact his legislative agenda with relative ease upon taking office in December.

This post originally appeared in the Forbes blog on Apr. 17, 2023.