US Wildcard in the Russia-Ukraine War

These are tough days for Ukraine in its struggle against Russian aggression. Kyiv’s much-awaited offensive was unsuccessful, and Russian counterattacks have forced Ukrainian forces back on their heels. Looking forward, Kyiv faces munition shortages in the short-term and manpower deficits further down the line. Grave uncertainty about U.S. support for Ukraine is also cause for concern. In contrast, some European countries — notably France — are taking a more assertive stance against Moscow.

A Disappointing Year

For Ukraine in 2023, losses in personnel and equipment were high and territorial gains were minimal. True, Russia also suffered high losses. However, Ukraine was successful in strikes against Russian naval vessels and facilities — launching attacks on Russian territory, including economically important oil refineries.[1] On balance, the prospect of driving Russia from Ukrainian territory is further away than it was in the beginning of 2023.

Ukraine is by no means defeated. Most of the country remains under Kyiv’s control. The government under President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is committed to victory and popular morale, though perhaps fraying, remains high. Moreover, Ukrainian forces appear capable of fighting Russia to a bloody stalemate. Russian forces might gain more territory by using attrition tactics, but any major breakthroughs are unlikely.

Problems Ahead

Munitions remain a problem for Ukraine, especially artillery shells. Russia substantially outguns Ukraine and ammunition shortages exacerbate this inequality. Members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have committed to increased supplies of ammunition, as well as other equipment, but Ukraine is still suffering shortfalls.

Russia has three times the population of Ukraine and Kyiv faces a looming crisis over personnel. Problems facing Ukraine in mobilization include: a portion of draft-aged men live in areas under Russian occupation; a substantial cohort fled abroad when the war began; and, not least, an aging population that means the average age of front-line soldiers is over 40. 

Support Is Uncertain

United States’ support for Ukraine’s war effort is no longer a certainty. From the very beginning of the war in February 2022, the U.S. was a strong supporter of Ukraine. While President Joe Biden drew the line on committing ground troops and U.S.-manned aircraft, he was a staunch advocate of U.S. and international assistance for Ukraine. 

Early on, this position found bipartisan support. That support is now in doubt, as funding for Ukraine has been delayed for months in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives. Congress will likely approve funding for Ukrainian aid at some point, but the delay has surely sent a message about U.S. resolve. In particular, the unwillingness of House Republicans to move legislation forward has set off alarm bells about future U.S. support for Ukraine.

This uncertainty is compounded by the likelihood that former President Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for president. Trump has long been enamored of Russian president Putin — he called the Russian autocrat a “genius” after Russia invaded Ukraine — and many fear, if reelected, Trump might try to force a pro-Russian peace agreement on Kyiv. 

Global Response Varies

Other European countries are also worried about a possible Trump victory. The former president remains ambiguous about the usefulness of NATO, which may explain a renewed energy on the part of some European NATO members. President Macron of France is clearly open to some sort of direct military intervention in Ukraine. He may find support in Poland and Baltic countries, who feel a revived Russian threat most acutely. The president of Latvia has also gone so far as to paraphrase the Roman politician Cato, calling for the destruction of Carthage: “Russia delenda est.”

Other leading NATO members, notably the United States and Germany, are unlikely to follow Macron down this path. Berlin and Washington remain worried about the risk of escalation should NATO intervene directly in Ukraine. As a nuclear power, Russia has an inventory of tactical atomic weapons. Moscow is unlikely to use them — unless Russia faces comprehensive defeat on the battlefield — but the risk of miscalculation remains high.

No End in Sight

Russian President Vladimir Putin has given no sign of relenting in his desire to crush Ukraine and, if possible, absorb it into Russia. This is very much Putin’s war and failure in Ukraine could threaten his hold on power. For their part, the Ukrainians have no taste for surrendering a sizeable portion of their country to Russian control. Neither side has a decisive military advantage, at present. Without a peaceful resolution on the horizon, the conflict continues.

Note 

[1] However, the deadly terrorist attack on a concert in Moscow on March 22, 2024, was the work of an ISIS affiliate.

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